Pittsburgh’s growth hampered by death rate, ’empty generation’ Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 4/3/2017

Pittsburgh’s growth hampered by death rate, ’empty generation’ Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 4/3/2017
The link is here

Pittsburgh’s growth hampered by death rate, ’empty generation’

It’s hard to win a fight with one arm tied behind your back, and an equivalent demographic handicap is stymieing the Pittsburgh region’s growth.

Population estimates for July 2016 released by the U.S. Census Bureau last month showed a fourth consecutive year of decline for the seven-county metropolitan area — a loss of 8,972 most recently. While a relatively slow-growing local jobs market is one rational explanation, Pittsburghers are often puzzled that a seemingly vibrant city drawing national buzz isn’t gaining population like most large cities.

Here’s a local demographic aberration that has to be taken into account: We die more often than give birth.

For a full two decades since 1996, in a trend showing no signs of abating, the unusually aged metropolitan area of Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland counties has had more deaths than births. The gap is 2,500 or more annually in a morbid imbalance matched by no comparably sized urban center in America.

If the region is to grow, it will take immigration from other parts of the country or from other nations to compensate for that natural shortfall. Most years, including the most recent ones, there is a net gain internationally but not domestically. The Census Bureau estimated that from 2015 to 2016, the Pittsburgh metro had 4,187 more deaths than births; suffered a net loss of 7,652 people to other parts of the U.S.; and gained 4,023 people via international exchange.

While efforts to attract more people from elsewhere are often discussed by civic officials, their capacity to stop residents already here from dying or coax them into abundant procreation is limited. The natural population decline is an inevitable result of so many working-age people having left during southwestern Pennsylvania’s 1970s-1980s manufacturing collapse. Not only did those people leave, but the kids they had — who would in many cases be in their child-bearing years now — aren’t here either.

“It will take a while to work through the echoes of the past,” said Chuck Imbrogno, models and data manager for the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission, a 10-county planning group. “The trend we saw was the population hollowed out, the older population stayed, the younger residents with families left for greener pastures, and it’s almost like we have an empty generation in the region.”

Census data indicate 18.7 percent of the metropolitan area’s population is 65 or older, compared to 14.9 percent nationally. It’s a big gap, but actually less so than in 2000, when older adults made up 17.7 percent of the local population but only 12.4 percent nationally. The aging of the U.S. population is gradually catching up to the Pittsburgh area’s longtime lead.

It’s birth rather than death patterns for which the region is most unusual. The 27,000 deaths annually in the seven counties are equivalent to a generation ago, in the early 1990s. Deaths nationally, meanwhile, have seen a small, gradual uptick.

But in the past quarter century, the number of babies being born in the metro has plummeted 25 percent, from about 32,000 annually to 24,000. The sharpest downturn was during the 1990s before leveling off during the past decade. The number of births nationally has also declined since 1990 — from shifts in age composition and child-rearing tendencies — but only slightly, from about 4.2 million to 4 million.

The skewed local demographics make Pittsburgh an outlier by many measurements. Since the 2010 national census head count, the Pittsburgh region is estimated to have had 20,597 more deaths than births, while no metro outside of Florida has had a natural decrease of even half that.

Among 48 metropolitan areas that have had more deaths than births in that span, the rest are almost all either retirement meccas or much smaller Rust Belt areas with their own migration/aging issues, including four others in Pennsylvania: Altoona, Bloomsburg, Johnstown and Scranton.

Herbert Smith, director of the Population Studies Center at the University of Pennsylvania, sees the Pennsylvania communities as severely challenged in achieving population turnarounds, given their demographic imbalances in addition to the economic factors that have created out-migration.

While Pittsburgh’s growing universities have done a good job of attracting more young people to the city, he said, if they leave to build careers elsewhere, it means they are likely gone before having their children. The more educated that women are, the later they tend to postpone childbirth. Among other hurdles, census data show Pittsburgh region women of child-bearing age give birth less often than is the case elsewhere — 48 per 1,000 women in a year compared to 53 nationally.

“You have a set of factors where not enough people are coming in, there’s not enough international migration coming in, the population is old compared to other places and you can’t trick those people who are young into having babies now, because they’re waiting to do so,” said Mr. Smith, a sociology professor.

One might think obstetricians would be fleeing the area in search of more fertile pastures elsewhere to practice their specialty, given all the demographic data. Dozens of maternity wards have closed across Pennsylvania since the 1990s, with units at Allegheny General Hospital, UPMC Shadyside and UPMC McKeesport among them.

But other financial and strategic considerations besides demographics factor into decisions to operate obstetrics units, said Dr. Allan Klapper, Allegheny Health Network’s chairman of obstetrics and gynecology. He said AHN’s maternity operations have thrived in recent years. including the region’s first new unit in decades at Jefferson Hospital serving the South Hills.

If there’s reason to be concerned about local demographics and the number of babies being produced, said Dr. Klapper, “we haven’t seen it. … Maybe over the next 15 or 25 years we may have to adjust to volume shifts from changing demographics, but hopefully the younger population will grow from new industries coming in.”

Officials from UPMC, whose Magee-Womens Hospital is the largest birthing center in the region, did not respond to a request for comment.

Despite the deaths-over-births equation, the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission’s population forecasts hold out hope for growth in the region.

Mr. Imbrogno said he did not have a breakdown on how the natural population change component compares with the migration components in the forecasting, but overall, its models suggest that the population in the SPC’s 10-county region — which includes Greene, Lawrence and Indiana counties in addition to the metro — will increase between 2015 and 2020 and in each successive five-year period through 2040.

Gary Rotstein: grotstein@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1255.

Autobiography of Myron Herrick

Interesting autobiography/biography of Myron Herrick written in the late 1920s

The link is here

From the Encyclopedia of Clevelansd History

HERRICK, MYRON TIMOTHY (9 Oct. 1854-31 Mar. 1929), lawyer, businessman, politician, and diplomat, was born in Huntington, Lorain County, Ohio, son of Timothy and Mary (Hulbut) Herrick. He attended Ohio Wesleyan College, not completing his degree but instead coming to Cleveland to study law in 1875. He was admitted to the bar in 1878 and practiced law until 1886, when he organized Euclid Ave. Natl. Bank and began his long association with Society for Savings, serving there until 1921. He was involved in many business enterprises, such as building the ARCADE, and also became interested in politics. He served on CLEVELAND CITY COUNCIL from 1885-90, and as a staunch Republican, aided MARCUS HANNA† in grooming Wm. McKinley for the presidency. Moving up the Republican ranks, by 1903 he was the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio and was elected by a large majority over Democrat TOM JOHNSON†. He was a conservative, though controversial, governor, and was defeated for reelection in 1905.

Herrick in 1912 accepted the ambassadorship to France from Pres. Taft. Although replaced in 1914, he remained in Paris after the outbreak of WORLD WAR I, evacuating stranded Americans out of Europe and providing relief to war victims. He returned to Cleveland to lead various civic committees organized for the war effort. In 1921, Pres. Harding reappointed Herrick ambassador to France, where he helped handle Chas. Lindbergh’s historic Paris landing in 1927. Two years later, Herrick died in Paris. Herrick married Carolyn M. Parmely in 1880, and had 1 son, Parmely. He was buried in LAKE VIEW CEMETERY.

Daniel E. Morgan: The Good Citizen in Politics by Dr. Thomas F. Campbell

“Daniel E. Morgan: The Good Citizen in Politics” by Dr. Thomas F. Campbell, 1966

Daniel Morgan was a Republican politician who came together with Democrats during the pre WW1 period to help draft the Cleveland Charter of 1913. Dr Campbell views Morgan as a key member of the team that included Newton D. Baker and others who helped give Cleveland an enlightened civic environment during the early part of the 20th Century.

Courtesy of Mrs. Marguerite “Peggy” Campbell

The first part of book here (approx 7mg.) Please be patient as it downloads

The second part of book here (approx 7mg.) Please be patient as it downloads

MORGAN, DANIEL EDGAR – The Encyclopedia of Cleveland History

MORGAN, DANIEL EDGAR (7 Aug. 1877-1 May 1949), councilman, state senator, city manager, and judge, was born in Oak Hill, Ohio, to Elias and Elizabeth Jones Morgan. He received his B.A. from Oberlin College (1897) and LL.B. from Harvard Law School (1901). While practicing law in Cleveland, he was elected as a Republican to CLEVELAND CITY COUNCIL (1909-11), supported HOME RULE, and helped write Cleveland’s new charter, supporting a large council with small wards, believing people should have neighborhood representation. In 1928 he was elected Ohio state senator, earning a reputation for improving pending legislation to make it more effective.Cleveland adopted the CITY MANAGER PLAN in 1923; city council elected Morgan city manager in 1930. He negotiated settlements over utility rates; opened all staff positions at City Hospital to Negroes; and persuaded county officials to put a $31 million bond issue on the ballot to pay for public works to provide jobs during the Depression. However, mounting unemployment outstripped the means available to alleviate the problems, and in Nov. 1931 the plan was abolished, the city returned to mayor-ward government, and Morgan ran unsuccessfully for mayor in 1932. Morgan became judge on the Court of Appeals in 1939, serving until his death. Morgan supported Goodrich House, the CONSUMERS LEAGUE OF OHIO, and LEGAL AID SOCIETY OF CLEVELAND, and was also a founder and first president of the CITY CLUB OF CLEVELAND. He married Ella A. Matthews (d. 1923), a women’s suffragette, in 1915, and had daughter, Nancy Olwen (Mrs. Armand B. Leavelle). In 1926 he married Wilma Ball.

 

Former Ohio Gov. and U.S. Ambassador Myron Herrick was much beloved by French: Elegant Cleveland Cleveland.com 10/18/2009

Former Ohio Gov. and U.S. Ambassador Myron Herrick was much beloved by French: Elegant Cleveland Cleveland.com 10/18/2009 The link is here

Former Ohio Gov. and U.S. Ambassador Myron Herrick was much beloved by French: Elegant Cleveland

By Evelyn Theiss, The Plain Dealer on October 18, 2009 at 12:01 AM
Myron-Herrick.jpg

Myron T. Herrick, looking properly ambassadorial here, by all accounts took his job, but never himself, too seriously. He was known to draw caricatures of speakers at banquets on menu cards and official programs.

ELEGANT CLEVELANDThis series looks back at the finest elements of Cleveland’s stylish history, as shown in its people, architecture, fashion and other cultural touchstones.

Myron T. Herrick was the U.S. ambassador to France in 1927, so you’d expect him to be at the airfield outside Paris that May, greeting Charles Lindbergh after he’d completed the first solo trans-Atlantic flight.But the Paris embassy wasn’t exactly the place you would have guessed that Herrick, a farmer’s son from Lorain County who got his start in politics as a Cleveland city councilman, would ever end up.

Yet, the first three decades of the 20th century were for Cleveland and Ohio a time of unimagined possibilities. And no one’s life story better reflects just how far a person could go in that era of potential, a time when this city and state wielded so much power on a national level, than Myron Timothy Herrick’s.

Herrick, by all accounts, didn’t achieve only heights of power and influence by being appointed ambassador, twice, by two presidents.

He became so beloved in France that boulevards in Paris and Rheims still carry his name.

Closer to Cleveland, all that is left of the Herrick estate atop Cedar Hill is the carriage house. John and Mary Lane Sullivan have lived here, on the lane now called Herrick Mews, since the early 1960s. The view from their second-floor living room is of a teahouse, now unused, that embraced the sunken gardens separating the mansion from the stables.

The Sullivans’ foyer features several pieces of Herrick memorabilia, including the dinner program from the Hotel Cleveland, where Herrick and others feted Lindbergh a mere two months after his flight to Paris.

“I think Myron Herrick is one of the most neglected people in Cleveland history,” says John Sullivan, a retired lawyer.

But France certainly remembers Herrick. The Sullivans recall a story their friend Mary Bolton shared with them. Her husband, Kenyon, had worked for another ambassador to France, David Bruce, in the early 1950s.

“Mary told us how a minister in the French government said to her that Mr. Bruce was one of the three greatest representatives of America who had ever come to France,” says Sullivan.

The others? Monsieur Myron Herrick, he said, of course. And the second? “Well, you ought to be ashamed of yourself for not knowing your history — Benjamin Franklin!”

Moral judgment,

powerful friendships

When Myron Herrick grew up near Wellington, the closest connection he had to France was his father Timothy’s reading aloud Victor Hugo’s “Les Miserables.” While only in his teens himself, he began teaching in a one-room schoolhouse to earn money for college, though he himself never finished high school.

Later, he went to Oberlin Academy, then to Ohio Wesleyan, but left as a junior. He moved to Cleveland and, after working three years at a law firm, was admitted to the bar. He married a woman he’d met at Oberlin, Carolyn Parmely, to whom he was, and remained, devoted.

With the help of his wife’s advice, Herrick made a decision that would change his future. He’d endorsed a note for $8,000, the equivalent of Herrick’s worth at that time, on behalf of a businessman he knew. The business failed, yet Herrick discovered a loophole that would allow him not to have to cover the debt with the bank.

But he and Carolyn decided he had a moral obligation to pay it. That act brought the young lawyer to the attention of Mark Hanna, who was on the bank’s finance committee and was already one of the town’s major power brokers.

Soon, a solid friendship formed, and through Hanna, Herrick would become friends with William McKinley, who would serve as Ohio governor before being elected president of the United States.

Herrick-Lindbergh.jpgU.S. Ambassador Myron T. Herrick, who enjoyed traveling by air whenever he could, is shown with Lindbergh in Paris. He took the exhausted young pilot back to the embassy for food and rest, and a friendship was forged.

Herrick helped raised funds for McKinley to pay down some debts — and when McKinley became president, he offered Herrick his choice of jobs: ambassador to Italy or secretary of the Treasury.Herrick turned down both, explaining that he was trying to make a go of a bank he was involved in, the Society for Savings (which would become Society National Bank). Later, he admitted he’d also heard some bad things about the plumbing at the embassy in Rome.

Traveling in 1901, President McKinley had planned to visit Herrick in Cleveland, but was shot by an anarchist in Buffalo, N.Y., and died of his wounds.

Herrick’s and McKinley’s old friend Mark Hanna was by then an Ohio senator, and he persuaded Herrick to run for governor, believing that as a Republican Herrick would carry Northeast Ohio and therefore the state. He did, beating the famous Cleveland Mayor Tom L. Johnson in a landslide.

But Herrick lost his bid for re-election. So he went back to his banking business and helped it grow.

In 1912, President William Howard Taft offered him the post of French ambassador. Herrick’s wife, Carolyn, and his son Parmely’s wife, Agnes, were both anxious to live in Paris and urged him to accept, and he did.

The outgoing ambassador, Robert Bacon, wondered whether Herrick would mind if he was still in Paris when he arrived. Herrick amiably said he didn’t, and suggested they spend some time together.

So Bacon canceled his reservation to sail on the Titanic. He forever credited Herrick with saving his life.

How the French

came to love him

“It was largely due to a man from Cleveland that the panic did not extend so far that the whole population would have left Paris and the Germans marched in.” — Lord Northcliffe

When Herrick arrived as ambassador, he was surprised that French “society people” and French government officials did not mix socially, as they would in most capital cities. Herrick could not accept this, and so began having dinners and parties that brought both groups together. The ambassador figured that invitations to the American embassy were enticing, and he was right.

When Woodrow Wilson was elected president in the fall of 1912, Herrick, as expected, tendered his resignation in early 1913. But as it would take Wilson a while to fill the post, he asked Herrick to stay on for a time. Then Germany declared war on France in August 1914. Though Herrick’s successor had been named, he hadn’t arrived and Herrick could hardly leave.

Within months, German troops were perilously close to Paris. Many countries closed down their embassies; even the French government moved to Bordeaux.

Herrick, though, said he wouldn’t leave the American embassy, no matter the warnings of danger. (The United States was still neutral at this point.) Other ambassadors — even Germany’s — unofficially asked him to keep an eye on their embassies, and the French government asked him to essentially be their watchman in Paris, too. He agreed.

The American embassy was flooded by Americans who had been stranded because of the war, and Herrick worked 20-hour days with his employees to assist them. He also raised a large amount of money for the American Hospital and, later, French war relief.

For all these reasons, the French came to love him and eventually awarded him their Legion of Honor.

Rising to

many occasions

Upon his return to Cleveland, Herrick faced personal tragedies, including the deaths of his wife and his young grandson.

After struggling with melancholy, Herrick was delighted by the idea that he could go back to France as ambassador. President Warren G. Harding appointed him, and he went back to Paris in 1921.

The French welcomed him warmly, with receptions and honors, to the point they began exhausting him. But he kept rising to the occasion, entertaining and being entertained.

The Western Reserve Historical Society, to whom his descendants donated all his personal papers, has 16 boxes of invitations, banquet programs, menu cards and calling cards from those embassy years.

Prominent Clevelanders — names like George Gund, Jeptha Wade and Amasa Stone Mather — called on him in Paris, as did a cadre of British royals and European countesses. There’s even a card from the sculptor Auguste Rodin, who became a favorite friend of Herrick’s. Rodin was to create a bust of Herrick, but died before he could do so.

But the high point of his second stint as ambassador would be Lindbergh’s arrival. Herrick didn’t guess what a huge event it would be, until he saw the tens of thousands of people lined up on the way to the Le Bourget airfield.

There was a danger of the crowds inadvertently hurting Lindbergh, so a decoy figure was walked to Herrick. Actually, the pilot was awaiting Herrick inside a hangar. He told the ambassador he had letters of introduction — as if he needed them. They became the first airmail, and Lindbergh and Herrick became fast friends.

Two years later, on Easter Sunday 1929, Herrick died in his bed at the embassy in Paris, weakened by a cold. He was 75. He is buried in Lake View Cemetery.

Today, relatively few people know of this Cleveland man who not only went to Paris, but knocked the socks off the not-so-easily-charmed French.

As Cleveland historian John Grabowski says, “Once you begin to lose people with living memories, it becomes an abstraction. But his career trajectory shows us how important meeting the right people at the right time can be — and just how much power and influence came out of this community at the turn of the 20th century.”

One of the people who had a profound memory of Herrick’s impact on France was the world-renowned Cleveland artist Viktor Schreckengost, who died last year at 101. He was a good friend of the Sullivans, the couple who live in the Herrick carriage house.

Schreckengost had been living and studying in Vienna, Austria, and made his way to Paris on what happened to be the day of Herrick’s funeral. He told the Sullivans the story.

“That day, on the Champs-Elysees, military bands marched, with the drummers seven abreast,” the artist said. “They would march a number of paces, then stop. It was the most deafening silence I ever heard.”

Newton D. Baker – The Civil Warrior (documentary)

The link is here

A Teaching Cleveland Documentary. Camera, production and editing by Jeremy Borison. Special thanks to Dr. John J. Grabowski, Tom Suddes, Greg Deegan and Brent Larkin. Also to the Cleveland Public Library, Cleveland State University Special Collections and the Western Reserve Historical Society.

Teaching Cleveland Digital